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"Russia has never fully appreciated the use of airpower beyond support to ground forces, " David A. Deptula, a retired U. S. The Economic Roots of the Ukraine Conflict. Air Force lieutenant general, told us. This can be shown by using a framework derived from the lessons of another paradigm-changing conflict: the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Operational intelligence, defined as "up-to-date information about the enemy that has been processed and distilled by experts from the mass of raw data received, " plays an important role in any modern military doctrine, though intelligence superiority it is not equated with victory.
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While morale among Russian soldiers is low, Ukrainians "are fighting for their homes and families, so you would expect them to be more motivated than their Russian counterparts" (Glantz, 2022). Because the Russians haven't at any time achieved air superiority, and having exhausted their guided munitions, their jets and helicopters have had to operate far behind the frontlines, preferring to release longer-range rockets blindly at the Ukrainians from distance, with helicopters lifting their noses to increase the range, firing them high into the sky. Nevertheless, the Russian Air Forces (VKS) ostensibly botched the missions aimed at destroying the enemy's air defense system. For comparison's sake, in the three weeks of the Yom Kippur War, waged on much smaller areas than the battles in Ukraine, 1, 064 Israeli tanks were damaged in battle, 407 of which were destroyed, unrepairable, or lost. I said this back in April: Putin cannot win. Achieving a victory on the field would serve to demonstrate the inefficiency of the Russian military, the country's only real strength in the past. This is not a comprehensive collection addressing every aspect of this complicated war, and I don't necessarily agree with everything in them, but I do think they raise important issues. One example of this is the Israeli IAI Harop loitering munition, which was used by Azerbaijan to destroy Armenian air defense systems during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and during border clashes in September 2022. On 10th October 2022, a day after Ukrainian forces had allegedly damaged the Crimean Bridge - also known as the Kerch Bridge -, Russian missiles struck Kyiv and several Ukrainian cities. Small doubts about authenticity, reliability or competence, nevertheless has a history of valid information in a majority of cases. The overlooked reason russia's invasion is floundering a bit. It is worth noting that Russian has also failed to achieve numerical superiority in Ukraine, and that Ukraine's personnel superiority has played an important role in the war. Either most of the Ukrainian antitank missiles had not been fired yet, or many of them did not hit their targets, or the Ukrainians were unable to fire all of their arsenal at Russian tanks, due to Russian tactics, artillery usage, or both. The era of Homo Sovieticus was nigh, and the transformation of the Russian population into Homo Economicus had begun. Phillips Payson O'Brien & Edward Stringer The Atlantic May 11, 2022 Airpower should have been one of Russia's greatest advantages over Ukraine.

What can be hit, can be killed. Today, it is harder than ever to hide force concentrations, as virtually anyone can buy high-resolution satellite photographs. Dan Sabbagh, "'War-Enabling, Not War-Winning': How Are Drones Affecting the Ukraine War?, " Guardian, 15 May 2022. Videos that have circulated on social media in the last week depict each of the Ukrainian air force's manned fighter and attack types, at least some of them while in action near the front line in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region. What to read about the Ukraine crisis? 30 articles for your consideration –. And with cuts to social spending came crises in healthcare and education. Ukrainian officials have claimed that they used an unmanned aerial vehicle to distract the Moskva's anti-air capabilities, then launched their homegrown Neptune anti-ship missiles before the confused Russian crew could react. The Kremlin failed to achieve its original objectives, namely the occupation of central-eastern Ukraine and the overthrow of the Zelensky government. This alone has meant that the Russian forces have essentially relied on the Soviet tactic of rendering towns into "moonscapes" by bombing them with "dumb" munitions (bombs lacking guidance or other precision capabilities) before moving small numbers of troops into what is left of a given settlement. However, the provision of intelligence and advice to Kyiv seem to be the most useful aspects of western support (Stavridis, 2022).

The Overlooked Reason Russia's Invasion Is Floundering

With the troops and all of their equipment in place, Ukraine hit the three road bridges (and railway) that crossed the Dnipro. 39 In both instances, the attackers did not use any advanced weaponry: simple unguided bombs were employed in the first case, and antitank rockets were used in the second. This is certainly a heavy toll compared to counterinsurgency wars of the near past: between 2001 and 2009, for example, the United States lost in both Iraq and Afghanistan approximately 70 helicopters to enemy fire. "The Six Day War" [Hebrew], Israeli Air Force, accessed 27 October 2022. Tactics will join with technology to make new threats manageable, as old threats were—but, like old threats, definitely not ignorable. Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. The overlooked reason russia's invasion is floundering today. See Cathal J. Nolan, The Allure of Battle: A History of How Wars Have Been Won and Lost (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017), 571–82. Rebecca Kheel, Milley Says Ukrainians Using Land Mines 'Effectively, ' Reopening Debate About Controversial Weapons,, Apr.

The protracted announcements gave Russia enough time to properly reinforce their defenses to the west of Kherson. While information on the battle is still incomplete, it seems that the Russians did employ some artillery to provide smoke cover and protect against short-range antitank teams (most of the area is wooded, with sight too limited for the employment of long-range antitank guided missiles) but failed to engage Ukrainian artillery. Jon Gambrell, "In First, Ukraine Apparently Brings Down Iranian Drone Used by Russia, " Times of Israel, 13 September 2022. Eventually, they were destroyed. In early May 2022, two Ukrainian Sukhoi Su-27 fighters attacked Snake Island in the Black Sea, held by Russian forces and defended by SAMs. Since the beginning of the war, after rapid but illusory victories, its advance has suffered a setback. Russo-Ukrainian War - The situation on the ground: stalemate or total victory. He also has a Master's Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University. In the next publication of the cycle, we will analyze the economic aspects that characterize the Russian-Ukrainian war.

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Logistics was another and perhaps the most problematic failure by the Kremlin. This is not to say that the great tank battles of the past will be seen again, but both the Russians and Ukrainians seem to acknowledge that the combination of protection, mobility, and firepower offered by tanks is still essential for maneuver and offensive operations. The overlooked reason russia's invasion is floundering in germany’s. 1 (Fort Eustis, VA: U. However, there have been no significant advances of Russian troops, generally remaining on the defensive if not even being forced to fall back, first in Kharkiv and Lyman and, more recently, in Kherson. Again, different factors played a role.

In Vietnam between 1965 and 1975, the United States lost approximately 2, 066 helicopters to hostile action. See "Baath Ground Forces Equipment, " GlobalSecurity, accessed 31 May 2022. That would appear to be the case. These numbers are based on Israel Defense Forces declassified data. "2 Many military leaders and strategists shared this view for a long time, and with good reasons.

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The latest that is rumored to be happening is negotiations between the forces in Kherson, with Russians apparently seeking to surrender on the right-hand bank of the Dnipro (the sides of a river are described in the direction they flow, so the right-hand side is on the left on the map! Airpower is potentially decisive in any war, but difficult to wield effectively. First, this article will examine the main combat systems on which most Western countries base (or based until very recently) their combat power: tanks, aircraft, and artillery. The goal, base leaders said in an interview ahead of the show, is to give people a chance to see the U. The debate is nothing new. Global Firepower reports a massive discrepancy in airpower between Russia and Ukraine; Ukraine is reported to operate 69 fighter aircraft, while Russia has a fleet of 772. Instead of an organized withdrawal, Ukrainian forces chose to fiercely fight for their territory, which led some analysts to observe that their strategy resembled one of attrition. 47 Loitering munitions, which are technically UAVs, have also added to the tally; the Ukrainians admitted that in the Kherson offensive, the 92d Mechanized Brigade alone lost four artillery pieces and two armored personnel carriers to Russian suicide drones. Three of the self-propelled guns lost (one destroyed, two captured) were BTR-ZD "Skrezhet" armored personnel carriers, which are basically ZU-23 guns mounted on airborne BMD-2 infantry fighting vehicles, and which are probably more effective in land warfare than in antiaircraft roles.

What the Ukrainians have done—contesting the skies against a richer, more powerful enemy on the cheap—is extremely difficult. Incidentally, the fact that Russia did not move its medical units close enough to the border before its invasion of Ukraine led to some analysts making the entirely reasonable estimate that Russia would not invade, as it lacked the medical means to support such an operation. "12 Seven years later, with the aid of electronic countermeasures and appropriate weaponry, Israel destroyed 19 Syrian SAM batteries in Lebanon without suffering a single casualty. 53 In the West, this awareness has diminished in recent years, due to the West's total aerial superiority in virtually every conflict of the last 40 years. Perhaps fourth-generation Russian planes simply cannot elude modern Ukrainian air defenses? These wrong assumptions about Russia's military power and Ukraine's military and political capacity to react, in turn, shaped the decisions taken by the Kremlin, the prominent example being the deployment of only 150. 46 However, after half a year of war and outright support for Ukraine, including the donation of Bayraktar drones, this explanation seems lacking, especially as Turkish financial interests suggest that it should emphasize the drone's capabilities. "51 Indeed, the fact that Bayraktar videos began to appear on Telegram and WhatsApp channels again during the recent Ukrainian counterattacks show that their role is most important when the enemy's air defense is scarce and least important when they try to operate over a relatively stable front line with a credible antiaircraft threat.

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And they have proven very effective at moving those assets around to help protect them, " a senior defense official said Monday. Ukraine has enjoyed a significant advantage in this area because it had better control of what was uploaded to the internet and published on social networks and had much better operational security in general. Before any conflict is properly started on the ground, SEAD operations seek to take out enemy air defenses and air force capabilities. Overnight, Russian state assets and industries were stripped for parts, public employment numbers shrank, price controls on essential goods were lifted, and the welfare system was dismantled. 1] Most of the surprising things mentioned in the article seem to be attributable to that assistance. Many videos posted on Telegram and WhatsApp channels show the different uses of drones in the war. This allows the guns to "shoot and scoot" (firing, and then getting out of the area quickly to avoid counter-battery fire). The Ukrainians have also used drones to identify and destroy Russian ground-to-air missiles, making Russian ground forces more vulnerable to attack from above. DOD also should think further about deterrence through the threat of retaliation, especially non-kinetic-based deterrence by punishment approaches that are already feasible and mutually reinforcing to reconstitution and retaliation. PRINTER FRIENDLY PDF. As a result, many Russian soldiers lost their lives (Suciu, 2022).

What to read about the Ukraine crisis? Unfortunately, the combination of Russia's hyper-capitalist transformation paired with a still nascent "liberal democracy" proved inadequate. 36 Limiting factors seem to include not only the SAM threat but also logistical and ammunition problems. Russia changed its initial objectives and recognized that taking the whole coastline would ruin Ukraine's economy since the ports are vital for the export of almost all of their produce.

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According to some findings, problems of intelligence gathering are a result of heavy losses of reconnaissance units but also of approximately 918 surveillance drones having been struck down by Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict (Ioanes, 2022). On 25th March, the Russian Ministry of Defence publicly stated that the Russian military had met most of the designated goals and that their offensive would proceed to the second phase, which would mainly focus on Eastern Ukraine. 20 These loses only illustrate what is already known—that war between armies is a bloody business, with terrible casualties. "As a result, Russia, in all its wars, has never conceived of or run a strategic air campaign. Some have argued that Turkey wanted to downplay the amount of Russian equipment destroyed by Turkish-made drones to preserve relations with Russia. Being able to use open-source intelligence and the private initiative of professionals and enthusiasts who do not belong to any military force and sometimes are not related at all to either side of the conflict can be a great asset to those who know how to pull data from social media platforms and other open sources, filter it, and use it for military purposes. See, for example, Ed Cumming, "Is This the End of the Tank?, " Telegraph, 14 March 2022; Lewis Page, "Why the Invasion of Ukraine Spells the End of Modern Tank Warfare, " Telegraph, 29 May 2022; Harsha Kakar, "Ukraine War: Is It the End of the Road for Tanks in Modern Warfare?, " First Post, 21 September 2022; and Federico Borsari, "The Tank's Death Has Been Exaggerated, " Center for European Political Analysis, 24 June 2022.

Indeed, it was forced to downsize them, focusing its attention on the Donbas and the southern coastal strip. But Ukraine lost almost nothing since—by September, only two more SAM systems and three more radars were lost, with one of the radars abandoned. Adam Taylor, How isolated is Russia, really?, Washington Post, Apr. This indeed happened with the great Ukrainian counterattacks of September 2022, in which the Ukrainian Army employed combined-arms teams, with tanks and mobile infantry appearing together, in both its attack against the Russian defensive perimeter in the south, in the Kherson area, and its rapid breakthrough in the north, near Kharkiv. But the challenges would remain basically the same, even if the exact character of war would be different. As chronicled in Naomi Klein's influential book "The Shock Doctrine, " this method of economic policy involves intentionally creating massive amounts of inequality within a country's financial and social systems in order to manufacture a new, hyper-laissez-faire arrangement wherein citizens are no longer protected from the gravity of market forces. While DePuy's "big three" lessons from the Yom Kippur War are probably still relevant here, another "big three" tactical lessons should be added.

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