Whole sections of a glacier, lifted up by the tides, may snap off at the "hinge" and become icebergs. The scale of the response will be far beyond the bounds of regulation—more like when excess warming triggers fire extinguishers in the ceiling, ruining the contents of the room while cooling them down. In the Labrador Sea, flushing failed during the 1970s, was strong again by 1990, and is now declining. The sheet in 3 sheets to the wind crosswords eclipsecrossword. By 1961 the oceanographer Henry Stommel, of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, in Massachusetts, was beginning to worry that these warming currents might stop flowing if too much fresh water was added to the surface of the northern seas. And in the absence of a flushing mechanism to sink cooled surface waters and send them southward in the Atlantic, additional warm waters do not flow as far north to replenish the supply. I hope never to see a failure of the northernmost loop of the North Atlantic Current, because the result would be a population crash that would take much of civilization with it, all within a decade. Once the dam is breached, the rushing waters erode an ever wider and deeper path.
A quick fix, such as bombing an ice dam, might then be possible. When the warm currents penetrate farther than usual into the northern seas, they help to melt the sea ice that is reflecting a lot of sunlight back into space, and so the earth becomes warmer. Change arising from some sources, such as volcanic eruptions, can be abrupt—but the climate doesn't flip back just as quickly centuries later. Indeed, we've had an unprecedented period of climate stability. The Great Salinity Anomaly, a pool of semi-salty water derived from about 500 times as much unsalted water as that released by Russell Lake, was tracked from 1968 to 1982 as it moved south from Greenland's east coast. Rather than a vigorous program of studying regional climatic change, we see the shortsighted preaching of cheaper government at any cost. I call the colder one the "low state. Term 3 sheets to the wind. " Now we know—and from an entirely different group of scientists exploring separate lines of reasoning and data—that the most catastrophic result of global warming could be an abrupt cooling. Tropical swamps decrease their production of methane at the same time that Europe cools, and the Gobi Desert whips much more dust into the air. Sudden onset, sudden recovery—this is why I use the word "flip-flop" to describe these climate changes. In discussing the ice ages there is a tendency to think of warm as good—and therefore of warming as better. Another sat on Hudson's Bay, and reached as far west as the foothills of the Rocky Mountains—where it pushed, head to head, against ice coming down from the Rockies. Civilizations accumulate knowledge, so we now know a lot about what has been going on, what has made us what we are.
That's how our warm period might end too. Flying above the clouds often presents an interesting picture when there are mountains below. In late winter the heavy surface waters sink en masse. In the Greenland Sea over the 1980s salt sinking declined by 80 percent. Although I don't consider this scenario to be the most likely one, it is possible that solutions could turn out to be cheap and easy, and that another abrupt cooling isn't inevitable. Broecker has written, "If you wanted to cool the planet by 5°C [9°F] and could magically alter the water-vapor content of the atmosphere, a 30 percent decrease would do the job. The saying three sheets to the wind. Twenty thousand years ago a similar ice sheet lay atop the Baltic Sea and the land surrounding it. A lake surface cooling down in the autumn will eventually sink into the less-dense-because-warmer waters below, mixing things up. For example, I can imagine that ocean currents carrying more warm surface waters north or south from the equatorial regions might, in consequence, cool the Equator somewhat. N. London and Paris are close to the 49°N line that, west of the Great Lakes, separates the United States from Canada. There is also a great deal of unsalted water in Greenland's glaciers, just uphill from the major salt sinks. Oceanographers are busy studying present-day failures of annual flushing, which give some perspective on the catastrophic failures of the past.
The cold, dry winds blowing eastward off Canada evaporate the surface waters of the North Atlantic Current, and leave behind all their salt. We are in a warm period now. When this happens, something big, with worldwide connections, must be switching into a new mode of operation. A gentle pull on a trigger may be ineffective, but there comes a pressure that will suddenly fire the gun. The North Atlantic Current is certainly something big, with the flow of about a hundred Amazon Rivers. It could no longer do so if it lost the extra warming from the North Atlantic. Those who will not reason. Salt circulates, because evaporation up north causes it to sink and be carried south by deep currents.
Fatalism, in other words, might well be foolish. Now only Greenland's ice remains, but the abrupt cooling in the last warm period shows that a flip can occur in situations much like the present one. Even the tropics cool down by about nine degrees during an abrupt cooling, and it is hard to imagine what in the past could have disturbed the whole earth's climate on this scale. Abortive responses and rapid chattering between modes are common problems in nonlinear systems with not quite enough oomph—the reason that old fluorescent lights flicker. The last time an abrupt cooling occurred was in the midst of global warming. History is full of withdrawals from knowledge-seeking, whether for reasons of fundamentalism, fatalism, or "government lite" economics. But we may not have centuries for acquiring wisdom, and it would be wise to compress our learning into the years immediately ahead. This produces a heat bonus of perhaps 30 percent beyond the heat provided by direct sunlight to these seas, accounting for the mild winters downwind, in northern Europe. Then not only Europe but also, to everyone's surprise, the rest of the world gets chilled. Any abrupt switch in climate would also disrupt food-supply routes.
It has been called the Nordic Seas heat pump. There is, increasingly, international cooperation in response to catastrophe—but no country is going to be able to rely on a stored agricultural surplus for even a year, and any country will be reluctant to give away part of its surplus. But our current warm-up, which started about 15, 000 years ago, began abruptly, with the temperature rising sharply while most of the ice was still present. Coring old lake beds and examining the types of pollen trapped in sediment layers led to the discovery, early in the twentieth century, of the Younger Dryas. Up to this point in the story none of the broad conclusions is particularly speculative. Eventually that helps to melt ice sheets elsewhere. Near a threshold one can sometimes observe abortive responses, rather like the act of stepping back onto a curb several times before finally running across a busy street. Because water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas, this decrease in average humidity would cool things globally. So freshwater blobs drift, sometimes causing major trouble, and Greenland floods thus have the potential to stop the enormous heat transfer that keeps the North Atlantic Current going strong. Oceans are not well mixed at any time.
Because such a cooling would occur too quickly for us to make readjustments in agricultural productivity and supply, it would be a potentially civilization-shattering affair, likely to cause an unprecedented population crash. All we would need to do is open a channel through the ice dam with explosives before dangerous levels of water built up. The job is done by warm water flowing north from the tropics, as the eastbound Gulf Stream merges into the North Atlantic Current. Just as an El Niño produces a hotter Equator in the Pacific Ocean and generates more atmospheric convection, so there might be a subnormal mode that decreases heat, convection, and evaporation.
By 250, 000 years ago Homo erectushad died out, after a run of almost two million years. But to address how all these nonlinear mechanisms fit together—and what we might do to stabilize the climate—will require some speculation. Unlike most ocean currents, the North Atlantic Current has a return loop that runs deep beneath the ocean surface. It would be especially nice to see another dozen major groups of scientists doing climate simulations, discovering the intervention mistakes as quickly as possible and learning from them. Scientists have known for some time that the previous warm period started 130, 000 years ago and ended 117, 000 years ago, with the return of cold temperatures that led to an ice age. It's the high state that's good, and we may need to help prevent any sudden transition to the cold low state. Or divert eastern-Greenland meltwater to the less sensitive north and west coasts.
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